It is timely to assess how prophetic Negroponte actually was.
In his book Being Digital,1 Nicholas Negroponte, the founder of MIT's Media Lab, predicted that the world was moving from one where telephone calls were made over fixed wires and television was delivered wirelessly, to one where just the reverse obtained. Dubbed 'the Negroponte Switch,' this prediction caused quite a stir at the time.
A little over a decade later, it is timely to assess how prophetic Negroponte actually was. It turns out that while he missed the mark in some respects, he was spot on in others.
In the USA, according to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), 98% of the population lives in a county with access to three or more mobile operators, up from 88% in 2000 (the first year in which such statistics were kept). Mobile penetration stands at nearly 75%, and up to 10% of households have dropped or have never had fixed-line telephone service (Figure 1 compares the USA and other countries).
Research we have conducted in the USA suggests that among mobile subscribers (as opposed to the population as a whole) the percentage of those who have ‘cut the cord’ at home is as high as 28%. We have also determined that even among those who have a fixed line in their homes, a significant percentage consider their mobile phone as their primary phone and only give out their mobile number. Mobile calling from home has displaced all types of fixed-line calling – not simply long-distance calls as is commonly thought. When asked if they think that their mobile phone would be satisfactory for all the calls they make or receive in their homes, close to two-thirds of respondents say it would. Of course, there are some trends to the contrary as cable television companies, in particular, roll out VoIP offerings in an attempt to attract and retain their fixed-line cable television subscribers.
As for television, Negroponte accurately foresaw the emergence of cable television as the dominant transmission medium for video programming. Nearly all US households have access to cable television systems, and over 60% of television households subscribe to cable service. But many households still rely on over-the-air signals for primary service and/or for additional TV sets. And Negroponte did not foresee that satellite broadcasting would capture a sizable segment of the multi-channel video market – with 23% of television households.
What Negroponte failed to account for altogether in predicting his switch was the importance of data services and especially the various Internet applications. Today, fixed-line operators have a decided edge. Wireless alternatives have been much slower to emerge. But Negroponte was no doubt on to something and it may be best to revisit things in another decade.
Figure 1: Mobile-only households: EU and the USA (Sources: for EU countries, Eurobarometer Special – eCommunications household survey, 2006; for the USA, CTIA and FCC (adjusted))
1 Negroponte, N., Being Digital, Alfred A. Knopf, Inc. (New York, 1995).
