Where mobility is not important, ever-increasingly capable networks could encourage a major shift in computing practices.
Imagine a world with unlimited bandwidth. Would we see the return of the ‘dumb terminal?’ Would the application service provision (ASP) model be the norm? Perhaps, on both counts.
In this world, any device would be able to communicate with any other device, whether the devices were designed for input, output or processing.
With unlimited bandwidth available, processing power could be aggregated or, ironically, centralised, like in the days of the mainframe, with a move to leaner PCs, or even dumb terminals. While MIT Media Lab has designed its ‘$100 Laptop’, for a specific niche (education), the Laptop could be the starting point for leaner PCs or dumb terminals connected to a centralised network.
If we turn to the ASP model, ASPs were all the rage in the dotcom boom, but disappeared rapidly in the bust. However, salesforce.com – one of the pioneers of CRM solutions – recently branched out into applications with its ‘AppExchange’, a wide range of business applications. Google’s recent acquisition of ‘Writely’, an online word processor, and ‘Picasa’, a digital photo management tool, suggests it is moving in this direction too.
However, Google’s ‘GDrive’ project – unlimited storage – is probably the most interesting development in application service provision, given that existing providers such as Xdrive, Streamload, and Amazon offer limited space, limited downloads, or storage for more specialist users only. Unlimited bandwidth would allow virtual drives to be accessed seamlessly and the requirement for regular backup, a burden for any PC user, would be eliminated. Some would view instantaneous backup as a killer application in its own right.
Ironically, to enable dumb terminals and application service provision, unlimited bandwidth is not actually required – current-generation broadband (DSL and cable) is good enough for now, and next-generation broadband will be even better. The holy grail – fibre – is already making inroads in the access network in some markets.
However, demand for mobility will mean that unlimited fixed bandwidth alone will not satisfy all users. Bandwidths available over 3G are probably not sufficient to enable a mobile version of this centralised world, and while 3G LTE and 4G are being marketed with impressive headline speeds, the mobile industry has a track record of under-delivering on actual end-user throughput. For some market segments, this may rule out leaner PCs, never mind dumb terminals. However, for other segments, where mobility is not important, ever-increasingly capable networks could encourage a major shift in computing practices, towards dumb terminals and application service provision.
