Mobile broadband in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2009–2014

Matt Hatton, Research Director

From a standing start in 2007, mobile broadband services will become the primary growth driver in the European telecoms market during the next five years.

The arrival of low-cost, high-speed, consumer-oriented mobile broadband services fundamentally changed the European mobile market in 2008. For MNOs, this represented a new source of revenue growth in a stagnating market – albeit one that threatens to overload their networks. For fixed-line incumbents, mobile broadband presents a serious competitive threat to their broadband revenue.

In this rapidly evolving market, MNOs and fixed-line operators, as well as infrastructure and device vendors, need to understand the opportunity presented by mobile broadband. This report quantifies the market opportunity, providing granular data on connections, ARPU and revenue on a country-by-country basis for 30 markets across Europe, including markets in the EU, as well as Russia, Turkey and Ukraine.

Mobile broadband in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2009–2014 answers your key questions:

  • At what rate will the mobile broadband subscriber base grow during the next five years?
  • What is the market opportunity for MNOs to acquire new subscribers across their geographical footprint?
  • What type of subscribers will dominate the mobile broadband customer base?
  • What proportion of the broadband market will be accounted for by mobile broadband, both in terms of connections and households?
  • How much ARPU will subscribers generate and how will this change during the next five years as the subscriber base develops?
  • What is the total revenue opportunity, and which segments and markets have the greatest revenue potential?

Mobile broadband in Europe: forecasts and analysis 2009–2014 was updated in April 2009 to reflect several changes in the market since the report was first published. The update includes:

  • amendments to 2008 subscriber estimates (and subsequent forecasts) for Belgium, the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Portugal, based on more-reliable market data
  • revised ARPU figures based on a more-segmented forecast model (which included separate modelling of consumer contract subscriptions), resulting in a slight reduction in total ARPU across the market as a whole.