Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2022–2027

03 May 2023 | Research

Qingyi Liang | Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (55 slides); Excel | The Middle East and Africa

"Revenue from mobile handset and broadband will continue to contribute the most to total telecoms revenue – it will account for 52% of the total revenue in 2027."

Operators’ investments in network expansions and LTE deployments will lead to an increase in mobile services take-up and revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The fixed broadband segment will also develop during the forecast period, albeit from a much smaller base.

This report and associated data annex provide:

a 5-year forecast of around 200 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 10 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Region modelled		Countries modelled individually
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)		Cameroon Côte d’Ivoire Ghana Kenya Nigeria Rwanda	South Africa Tanzania Uganda Zambia

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile:

total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT, business
handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
mobile broadband
total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
IoT
penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT

Fixed:

voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, total business connections
penetration: voice, broadband (business sites and households)

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Traffic

Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
Cellular data and messaging traffic

Network-independent metrics

GDP
Population
Households
Business sites
Exchange rates

Service revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
prepaid, contract, prepaid share
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)

Fixed:

total (retail plus wholesale)
share of GDP
per capita per month

Retail revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
per GB
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
voice, voice per minute
data, data per GB
handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
mobile broadband
IoT

Fixed:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
voice
dedicated connections
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ICT services

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Wholesale revenue

Mobile
Fixed

ASPU

Mobile:

total
voice
data
mobile broadband
IoT
handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data

Fixed:

voice
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ARPU

Mobile:

total
prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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