Space Debris Removal: Are Technology and Policy Aligned?

Last week, the U.S. Administration declared a ban on anti-satellite missile tests (ASAT), citing concern over the danger of the resulting space debris. Previously, Russia’s ASAT test was universally condemned due to the large debris cloud produced, and before that, India’s 2019 testing raised similar concerns.

The proliferation of new satellites to the rising dangers of debris from previous launches have become a cause for concerns for the safety of orbital assets and the future of the $679B space & satellite applications and communications verticals. This has led to the U.S. Government releasing its in-space servicing strategy to give a new impetus to collaboration with global space faring nations.

Presently, the UN is leading the effort on promoting space activities through principles of responsible behaviors, and the FCC is updating its orbital debris rules to ensure that satellite operators disclose the identifying and tracking of satellites, likelihood of collisions with large and small objects, and potential failure rates and associated risks. The question that remains is: Will the technology and policy gap close sooner or still require more government push to create a tangible and sustainable Active Debris Removal (ADR) market?

NSR’s In-Orbit Services: Satellite Servicing, ADR, and SSA 5^th Edition report forecasts over 15,000 satellites could be serviced via ADR solutions, but the market demand reaches only 325 satellites with a need for De-Orbiting or Active Debris Removal, generating over $3.1 billion in cumulative revenues. While many satellites in question include commercial constellations, government/military agencies and organizations are doubling down on supporting the development of technologies, and regulation and space faring nations are making improvements in rules, and principles for a sustainable orbital environment.



Whether it is policy and regulation, or the potential threats from a rising number of satellites, or the growing space economy, several trajectories are foreseen for Active Debris Removal technologies, despite more challenges on the road towards achieving sustainability and security of space assets. One example is the recent anomaly that Astroscale suffered to its spacecraft during the operations of its ELSA-d mission, which showcased the hard road to demonstrate a viable and operational technology for ADR and In-Space Services.

Policy vs. Technology: Do We Have a Winner?

With the proliferation of satellites in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO), constellations are also changing the way satellites get into space, with record launches in 2021 carrying multiple satellites in orbit which make it more difficult for surveillance networks to spot and keep track of individual objects.  The increase in satellites is primarily happening due to commercial broadband communication, and Earth Observation constellations that are targeting many sizeable markets on Earth. But it poses a challenge for long-term space sustainability and the threat could last well over the next decade.

The technology needed for in-orbit services, especially de-orbiting and ADR tackle the future proliferation of satellites in a proactive manner. Although this technology continues to follow its development path with increasing challenges, companies are creating dual-use technology to find a balance between market/technology needs. However, since the number of satellites in orbit increases much faster than the deployment of ADR and de-orbiting technology, an imbalance is occurring between the two and presents a problem as the probability of potential critical events continues to rise. Recently, astronauts on board ISS had to shelter during the first few passes of debris cloud, and Chinese satellite experienced a near miss with the ASAT debris as well – the frequency of these events are rising at an alarming rate.

The policy problem in lower orbits is the practice of responsible behavior, which are not necessarily directly monitored or evaluated widely and gives rise to the problem of satellites frequently encountering rising dangers of “conjunctions”. This requires operators to ensure a robust and reliable maneuvering capability on board their satellites. But they also need to have a sustainable business, thus are caught between balancing on-orbit maneuvering vs. on-board satellite station keeping, which lowers expected life.

Satellites deployed in higher orbits are likely to encounter debris left over from anti-missile tests, increasing the chances to either use on board resources for extensive maneuvering or in the future, maybe a third-party servicer to remove pieces of debris. These orbits require a two-pronged approach with a balance between removing existing high-level threat objects and ensuring present and future launch and satellite operators are following mitigation guidelines and principles of responsible use of outer space.

With a strong policy promoting sustainability and reinforcing the commitment to prevent the threats of space debris instigated via anti-satellite testing, the U.S. Government has also engaged with the larger ecosystem by taking the lead amongst space faring nations to support the development of technology and services to accelerate sustainability. These will help reduce costly maneuvers and the risks for the space industry, especially in low Earth Orbit.

Government vs Commercial: Do We Have a Leader?

Government agencies and commercial companies are stepping up their efforts to counter the rising safety concerns in space, owing to the growing number of space debris, with initiatives such as Clean Space launched by the European Space Agency or the recent announcement from the U.K. Government about new funding for space sustainability projects are enabling capabilities to enhance the safety of future space missions.Governments and commercial industry are focusing on both mitigation and remediation strategies to ensure orbital safety of assets and to evaluate the feasibility of the market. The ADR/De-Orbiting market is currently in its infancy, where the transactional support from governments is enabling demonstration of technology to be used for ADR.  However, it is yet difficult for a commercial satellite operator to break the bank to pay for removing a cooperative satellite that could become debris. Furthermore, which responsive governments would find it sustainable to utilize taxpayers’ dollars to remove non-cooperative objects while also addressing the geo-political impacts with non-responsive space faring nations?

With organizations such as UN-COPUOS engaging the international community to promote best practices, establish standards, implement rules, and principles for engagement with high level threats, it is driving the conversation to look at policies and regulations through a microscope to facilitate the work needed to drive the market for ADR.

While there are positive strides towards a sustainable future for the orbital environment, the bar for cooperation needs to be raised. A key focus on the feasibility of the market beyond the early technology demonstrations is required to ascertain if the ADR and de-orbiting business case is strong enough for operators to add value to existing ecosystem, or to assess if the real value of the in-orbit services market is ensuring that dual/triple-use technology development is at the heart of every roadmap.

With this in question, governments and military agencies can support the commercial industry players by establishing sustainable programs to design, develop and deploy technology with these objectives and challenges at the forefront.

The Bottom Line

NSR’s believes the growth of ADR and de-orbiting market to be on an upward trajectory, while not as strong as it could be.

But the feasibility for many opportunities remains in question as technology and policies are not yet fully aligned. The speed of technology deployment with the necessary policies and regulations in place to support the business cases, as well as costs associated with the removal of objects need to be addressed simultaneously to signal the beginning of a strong ADR market going forward.