The “Dishy Dilemma” for Flat Panel Antennas

Today in 2021, the demand for Internet connectivity in households globally has drastically increased because of COVID-19 and strict lockdown measures. While economic and social activities become more reliant on digital solutions, consumer behaviors toward broadband connectivity have also changed. More satellite constellations are being launched than ever before, and a rapidly changing environment for flat panel antennas has come with this. Some of the latest trends include the multi-orbit, multi-frequency, and multi-beam flat panel antennas. Regardless, some of the experts in the industry argue that the technology is not there yet, others will say the technology is there and that the price should be *the* focus of today. Even though the mobility commercial and government segments drive most revenues, consumer broadband is where the growth opportunity is.



According to NSR’s Flat Panel Satellite Antenna Analysis, 6^th Edition report, consumer broadband is the largest volume market for FPA form factors, with nearly 15% penetration by 2030. As previous NSR reports pointed out, this segment will require low-cost terminals that enable low subscriber acquisition cost. Even at a Retail Price of $500, the amount SpaceX is charging its customers for a terminal, SpaceX is in fact paying upwards of three times as much to produce one terminal. While vertically integrated companies such as SpaceX can optimize the Total Cost of Ownership between CAPEX (terminal cost) and OPEX (monthly subscription revenues), other companies must instead operate with a disconnect between terminal costs and monthly costs – instead optimizing each side of the equation independently.

However, Starlink provides a firm price point for real world FPA terminals for consumer broadband applications. Yet, even at $500 this price is significantly higher than the parabolic form factors. That alone though does not mean parabolics will ‘win’ all consumer broadband markets. For Non-GEO HTS architectures, they are a must-have. As such, a wide variety of market players are building solutions for these emerging options – sometimes independently of any cost sharing between terminal costs and monthly revenues. Overall, Starlink’s “Dishy McFlatface” has set a firm benchmark for pricing in consumer broadband FPAs.



Digging into how these comparisons and benchmarks stand up against previous outlooks in NSR’s FPA research reports, it is clear while prices will decline over the forecast period, COVID-19 has pushed back and fundamentally changed the pricing of consumer broadband FPAs. While previous forecasts saw pricing trend towards the mythical “$100 FPA”, Starlink’s entry into the market has readjusted that view. Combined with the delays and setbacks due to supply-chain shortages, NSR expects a gradual decline of pricing rather than a sudden ‘drop to the bottom.’

On the shipped terminal side, COVID-19 demand and the uptake of Non-GEO HTS consumer broadband continues to shift shipped units forecast upward. While still not to the levels expected in our 2017 FPA report, there is no doubt that the market is seeing more demand for consumer broadband connectivity. As more regions and consumer broadband satellite networks come online over the next couple of years, these will all drive upwards of $220M in 2030 equipment revenues for consumer broadband FPAs. Although some of these networks are shipping units today, NSR recognizes these shipments and In-Service Units as fully online starting in 2022 to reflect their ‘beta trial’ nature today. With over 100k ‘beta trials’ underway, and SpaceX mentioning hopes to service another 400k by end the of 2021 – there is a clear market for Non-GEO HTS Consumer Broadband FPAs at prices far greater than previously predicted. Where the “top” of that price vs. shipping curve remains to unfold, but NSR continues to see growing opportunities in the ‘not cheapest’ segment of the FPA end-user market.



So, what does this all mean? As the demand for Internet connectivity continues to expand – and these networks push into marginal use cases two facts will hold true – terminal prices will fall, and subsidies combined with cost sharing between terminal costs and subscription revenues will enable greater adoption rates at higher FPA prices than previously expected.

Bottom Line

Cumulative FPA shipments for consumer broadband will reach 4.9M out of a total of 6.1M between 2020 and 2030. 99% of those consumer broadband terminals will be for Non-GEO HTS Constellations, driving new adoptions and use-cases for a highly price-sensitive segment. While FPA penetration amongst all VSAT form factors will continue to increase over the next decade, FPAs still remain a small percentage of the total Satellite Communications Terminal opportunity.