Is Europe entering a new phase of mobile consolidation?

Charles Murray

So, one last prediction to go from me, and this is all about four-to-three consolidation in the mobile industry.

Very much a hot topic, should we say, and one which has been long discussed and long in the making.

Now, obviously, we’ve seen four-to-three before in a number of markets, in Italy and in Spain. Whilst those were very much positioned as transformative for the market at the time, they did have the unfortunate side effect, through the remedies, of letting new entrants into those markets.

So we have Iliad arriving in Italy, which you may know a few things about. That means this was not really a four-to-three consolidation effectively.

And now we’re seeing a not dissimilar journey for the Spanish market with the arrival of Digi, which is doing a remarkably good job on customer acquisition and infrastructure deployment. So yes, that’s certainly changing the market there quite considerably.

So we have seen it before, but not necessarily with the success it may have had.

However, that has potentially changed with the fact that in the UK, the Vodafone–Three UK merger finally got clearance in 2025. Because of that, with no significant additional remedies, there’s going to be no Iliad or Digi entering the UK market.

From that, you can see other large European operators looking at that as a precedent and thinking, well, isn’t it about time that we had consolidation in our markets?

Alessandro Ravagnolo

I think there is a bit of an elephant in the room that we need to address. 2026 started with a big announcement — the RAN-share deal between TIM and Fastweb-Vodafone in Italy.

So you talk about consolidation in the sense of a merger, right? But what about RAN sharing? Is it still a hot topic?

Charles Murray

I think RAN sharing can play a role. In some ways, these are complicated deals that take quite a long time to execute, but they certainly give you the infrastructure synergies that are long required, and potentially spectrum synergies as well. Don’t underestimate the cost of spectrum in many markets.

I think RAN sharing certainly has a part to play, and maybe that’s the way that Germany will consolidate — potentially 1&1 and Telefónica, or even a Vodafone RAN share could be possible there — rather than an out-and-out merger.

But coming back to the 2026 prediction, I think there are two markets where we’re likely to see action.

We’ve obviously seen the original offer for SFR being rejected, but we’re pretty confident that a revised offer is coming back on the table. I think the pressure that Iliad is under means that offer will, at some point, be accepted.

So as a prediction, France may be the next market where we will see a four-to-three merger.

You mentioned Italy, and I think there’s a good roadmap in Italy too. I think the Wind Tre and Three option there will be the most obvious one. A merger of Three with other operators like Vodafone may be just a bit harder to do, particularly as Fastweb and Vodafone are still being integrated.

So from that perspective, we are also predicting that in 2026 we could see an announcement in Italy as well.

Spain is the other market where there’s clear opportunity for four-to-three now that Digi is becoming so active and so aggressive. Zegona Communications is the obvious seller there, we think. However, exactly how that shapes up, given Zegona’s high share price, means 2026 is probably unlikely — maybe in a few years yet — but that will certainly be discussed throughout the year.

So yes, a very interesting time in the core telco world from a consolidation perspective. And maybe this is the sort of inflection point that the market really needs to start driving value creation for shareholders.

Alessandro Ravagnolo

A piece of information that I want to add is that you correctly mentioned that RAN share deals are extremely complicated, and both you and I have probably worked on quite a few RAN share deals that were never surfaced to the press — and never will be.

But the TIM–Vodafone RAN share was actually first announced in 2019. It’s interesting that it’s back on the table — it was never implemented, of course. And now it’s January 2026 and it’s back under discussion. So this shows how hard and unpredictable this market can sometimes be.

One question to close the loop is: what does it mean, of course, for lenders and investors in digital infrastructure — or more specifically, in towercos? What does it mean for them?

Charles Murray

When there’s a RAN share in the market, I think there’s an opportunity to demonstrate, as a towerco in particular, your understanding of client needs and your ability to flex where required, while still maintaining the revenue line you need to support the investment thesis.

So it’s all about the towercos that listen, the towercos that think, and the towercos that provide a win-win solution for all players — they are the ones that are likely to win out when it comes to consolidation. Ultimately, consolidation is all about trying to drive a certain amount of cost out of the business.

There are a lot of learnings from past mergers about how to go about it, and particularly how not to go about it.

From the lenders’ perspective as well — lending into the core operators — it’s certainly an interesting time. There’s a lot of opportunity. These consolidations will potentially produce new capital stacks, which will be interesting, and there will be a lot of money to be spent in terms of consolidation. In the UK alone, there’s GBP11 billion to be spent.

From that perspective, I think it’s a good opportunity for lenders. There are a lot of things they really need to understand about the M&A process and how long synergies take to be realised. But it provides opportunity beyond what people might otherwise expect consolidation to deliver.

Alessandro Ravagnolo

Thank you, Charles. So this was prediction number six — the last one for this year. Are we going to be right? Are we going to be wrong? Well, let’s discuss it during the year.

Any final remarks from your side before saying goodbye?

Charles Murray 

I think 2026 is going to be a fantastic year. We’re certainly looking forward to it. We saw an uptick in activity in the second half of 2025, and we’re seeing interest and activity straight from the get-go in 2026. We have a reasonably good-looking pipeline going forward.

So I think it’s certainly going to be an interesting year.

Note: This transcript was generated using AI and has been lightly edited. Minor errors may remain.