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FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2012–2017

Rupert Wood Principal Analyst

Demand for FTTx has gradually picked up in 2011, and we expect continued improvement.

Fibre2012 looks like it will be a year when operators will start to roll out accelerated DSL technologies in significant volumes. This has the potential to slow the build-out of FTTH, but there are some early signs that take-up of next-generation fixed access is increasing, which may encourage operators to be bolder.

This Report outlines current supply and demand trends, key operator developments, the latest cost assumptions and a market outlook, based on a fully reviewed update of our previous FTTx forecasts. It includes case studies on five European incumbents: A1 Telekom Austria, Telekom Deutschland, Telecom Italia, France Telecom (Orange) and BT.

The Excel data annex provides:

  • actual 2009–2011 data and five-year forecasts of:
    • FTTB/H and VDSL connections
    • FTTB/H and VDSL premises passed
    • DOCSIS3.0 premises passed
    • penetration rates of total premises and premises passed
    • capital expenditure on FTTB/H and VDSL.
  • data for 30 countries and 4 regions (Central and Eastern Europe, Developed Asia–Pacific, North America and Western Europe).