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Central and Eastern Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2020–2025

30 March 2021 | Research

Jakub Konieczny Ameer Gaili Charlie Westphal Emma Brown Michelle Lam Olamide Makinde Qingyi Liang

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (79 slides); Excel


"The total telecoms service revenue in Central and Eastern Europe is expected to have remained flat in 2020 (compared to 4% growth in 2019) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. "

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The COVID-19 pandemic will affect household and business spending on telecoms services in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) during 2020–2021. Revenue from business services, mobile roaming and prepaid segments will be the most affected by lockdown measures. The pandemic will slow down 5G network roll-outs and service take-up. However, the reinforced importance of fast and reliable connectivity for the whole household will help to increase fixed broadband revenue in many countries in the region. 

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of around 350 mobile and fixed KPIs for CEE, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for the key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

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Geographical coverage

Region modelled

 

Countries modelled individually

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

 
  • Bulgaria
  • Croatia
  • Czech Republic
  • Estonia
  • Hungary
  • Latvia
  • Lithuania
  • Montenegro
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Russia
  • Serbia
  • Slovakia
  • Slovenia
  • Turkey
  • Ukraine

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile:
    • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT
    • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
    • mobile broadband
    • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • business, residential
    • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
    • IoT
    • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Fixed:
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, gigabit-capable connections
    • business, residential
    • dedicated connections
    • penetration (business sites and households): voice, broadband (ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, other technologies)
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Traffic

  • Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
  • Cellular data and messaging traffic

 

Network-independent metrics

  • GDP
  • Population
  • Households
  • Business sites
  • Exchange rates
 

Service revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • residential, business
    • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • Fixed:
    • total (retail plus wholesale)
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month

 

Retail revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • per GB
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • voice, voice per minute
    • data, data per GB 
    • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT connectivity
  • Fixed:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB
    • dedicated connections
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, as a share of fixed retail revenue
  • ICT services
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Wholesale revenue

  • Mobile
  • Fixed

 

ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • voice
    • data
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
    • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
    • business, residential
  • Fixed:
    • voice
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
    • business, residential

 

ARPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • prepaid, contract
    • business, residential
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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