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Sub-Saharan Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2020–2025

07 April 2021 | Research

Alex Boisot Karim Yaici Ameer Gaili Charlie Westphal Emma Brown Felix Hall

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (59 slides); Excel | The Middle East and Africa


"A large population of young, data-hungry consumers will drive rapid growth in the demand for connectivity in SSA."

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Mobile network operators’ network expansions and LTE deployments, combined with the increasing availability of affordable devices, will result in a growing take-up of mobile data plans and increasing mobile data consumption. Operators will primarily use fixed-wireless access solutions to provide fixed broadband services, while FTTP/B roll-outs will meet the demand in the wealthiest metropolitan areas of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of around 200 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

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Geographical coverage

Region modelled

 

Countries modelled individually

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA)

 
  • Cameroon
  • Côte d’Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile:
    • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT, business
    • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
    • mobile broadband
    • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
    • IoT
    • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Fixed:
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, total business connections
    • penetration: voice, broadband (business sites and households)
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional

 

Traffic

  • Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
  • Cellular data and messaging traffic

 

Network-independent metrics

  • GDP
  • Population
  • Households
  • Business sites
  • Exchange rates
 

Service revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • Fixed:
    • total (retail plus wholesale)
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month

 

Retail revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • per GB
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • voice, voice per minute
    • data, data per GB 
    • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
  • Fixed:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • voice
    • dedicated connections
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
  • ICT services
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional

 

Wholesale revenue

  • Mobile
  • Fixed

 

ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • voice
    • data
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
    • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
  • Fixed:
    • voice
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

 

ARPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • prepaid, contract
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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