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Western Europe telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2020–2025

02 March 2021 | Research

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska Charlie Westphal Felix Hall Olamide Makinde Qingyi Liang Rémy Giraud Michelle Lam

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (80 slides); Excel


"The telecoms sector was less affected by the COVID-19 pandemic than many other segments of the economy in 2020, but longer-term lockdown consequences and economic uncertainties (including Brexit) will affect household spending in the coming years. "

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The previously projected moderate growth for the total telecoms service revenue in Western Europe was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, but we now expect faster recovery. Telecoms revenue will still be negatively affected by the increase in the number of fixed–mobile convergence (FMC) offers in less-saturated markets, but this will mostly be offset by mobile subscribers’ migration towards contract plans, the growing number of broadband users and increasing pay-TV revenue.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of around 350 mobile and fixed KPIs for Western Europe, as a whole and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

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Geographical coverage

Region modelled

 

Countries modelled individually

Western Eastern Europe (WE)

 
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile:
    • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT
    • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
    • mobile broadband
    • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • business, residential
    • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
    • IoT
    • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Fixed:
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, gigabit-capable connections
    • business, residential
    • dedicated connections
    • penetration (business sites and households): voice, broadband (ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, other technologies)
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Traffic

  • Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
  • Cellular data and messaging traffic

 

Network-independent metrics

  • GDP
  • Population
  • Households
  • Business sites
  • Exchange rates
 

Service revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • residential, business
    • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • Fixed:
    • total (retail plus wholesale)
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month

 

Retail revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • per GB
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • voice, voice per minute
    • data, data per GB 
    • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT connectivity
  • Fixed:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB
    • dedicated connections
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, as a share of fixed retail revenue
  • ICT services
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Wholesale revenue

  • Mobile
  • Fixed

 

ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • voice
    • data
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
    • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
    • business, residential
  • Fixed:
    • voice
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
    • business, residential

 

ARPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • prepaid, contract
    • business, residential
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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