China: telecoms market forecasts 2024–2029

29 August 2024 | Research

Qingyi Liang

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (4 slides) | Asia–Pacific Metrics and Forecasts


"Total retail revenue in China will grow at a CAGR of 1.2% between 2024 and 2029 to reach over CNY1.9 trillion."

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Analysys Mason provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the telecoms market in emerging Asia–Pacific. This report focuses on operators’ core telecoms services in China.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of mobile and fixed KPIs for China
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics
  • a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

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Geographical coverage

Region modelled

 

Country modelled individually

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

  
  • China

 

Key performance indicators

Connections

  • Mobile:
    • total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT
    • handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
    • mobile broadband
    • total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • business, residential
    • total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
    • IoT
    • penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Fixed:
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, gigabit-capable connections
    • business, residential
    • dedicated connections
    • penetration (business sites and households): voice, broadband (ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, other technologies)
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Traffic

  • Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
  • Cellular data and messaging traffic

 

Network-independent metrics

  • GDP
  • Population
  • Households
  • Business sites
  • Exchange rates
  

Service revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • residential, business
    • prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
  • Fixed:
    • total (retail plus wholesale)
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month

 

Retail revenue

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • per GB
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
    • voice, voice per minute
    • data, data per GB 
    • handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT connectivity
  • Fixed:
    • total
    • share of GDP
    • per capita per month
    • business, residential
    • voice: narrowband, VoBB
    • dedicated connections
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, as a share of fixed retail revenue
  • ICT services
  • Pay TV
    • operator, traditional
    • business, residential

 

Wholesale revenue

  • Mobile
  • Fixed

 

ASPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • voice
    • data
    • mobile broadband
    • IoT
    • handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data
    • business, residential
  • Fixed:
    • voice
    • broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies
    • business, residential

 

ARPU

  • Mobile:
    • total
    • prepaid, contract
    • business, residential
    • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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Asia–Pacific forecasts

Analysys Mason's 'Asia–Pacific Metrics and Forecasts' research module provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the fixed and mobile telecoms markets for 14 countries and two major regions: developed Asia–Pacific and emerging Asia–Pacific.

Read more

Author

Qingyi Liang

Analyst

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