Middle East and North Africa telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2023–2028

02 October 2023 | Research

Julia Martusewicz-Kulinska Erik Ottosson Stephen Day James McManus Mubtasin Quader Jonathan Daniel

Forecast report | PPTX and PDF (60 slides); Excel | The Middle East and Africa

"The majority of telecoms service revenue in MENA will come from the mobile segment, but the main drivers behind telecoms revenue growth will be the high demand for fast fixed broadband access."

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will remain mobile-centric in the forecast period, however the mobile segment contribution to the overall sector revenue will decline. The service revenue generated by the mobile segment will account for 59% of the total telecoms revenue in the region, down from 64% in 2022.

This report and associated data annex provide:

a 5-year forecast of around 200 mobile and fixed KPIs for MENA as a whole and for 12 key countries
an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
a summary of results and key implications for mobile and fixed operators.

Geographical coverage

Region modelled		Countries modelled individually
Middle East and North Africa (MENA)		Algeria Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Kuwait	Morocco Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Tunisia United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Key performance indicators

Connections

Mobile:

total (handset plus mobile broadband, excluding IoT), total including IoT, business
handset: smartphone, basic, smartphone share of handsets
mobile broadband
total, handset and broadband: 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
total and handset: prepaid, contract and prepaid share
IoT
penetration: total, prepaid, contract, handset, smartphone, mobile broadband, IoT

Fixed:

voice: narrowband, VoBB, dial-up
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies, total business connections
penetration: voice, broadband (business sites and households)

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Traffic

Outgoing minutes (fixed and mobile), MoU
Cellular data and messaging traffic

Network-independent metrics

GDP
Population
Households
Business sites
Exchange rates

Service revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
prepaid, contract, prepaid share
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)

Fixed:

total (retail plus wholesale)
share of GDP
per capita per month

Retail revenue

Mobile:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
per GB
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G (and 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G share)
voice, voice per minute
data, data per GB
handset: total, voice, messaging, data, prepaid, contract, prepaid share
mobile broadband
IoT

Fixed:

total
share of GDP
per capita per month
voice
dedicated connections
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ICT services

Pay TV

operator, traditional

Wholesale revenue

Mobile
Fixed

ASPU

Mobile:

total
voice
data
mobile broadband
IoT
handset: total, prepaid, contract, voice, messaging, data

Fixed:

voice
broadband: ADSL/VDSL, FTTP/B, cable modem, FWA, 5G FWA, other technologies

ARPU

Mobile:

total
prepaid, contract
2G, 3G, 4G, 5G

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