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Update 21/28 March 2024

28 March: The historical dataset for all Western European countries was updated to include 4Q 2023 data.

21 March: The Financial KPI dataset was updated with data to 4Q 2023 for all regions, based on available reporting at the time of publication. A number of operators have delayed their end-of-year reporting, so we will collect and incorporate the remaining data in our next update.

TELCO FORECASTS

The IoT forecasts have been fully updated based on data to 2Q 2023. We have consolidated the taxonomy, creating new aggregated metrics (for all metric types, all networks, for totals and splits by technology) in the following categories.

New metric name Aggregated from the following metrics (which have been retired)
IoT – automotive – fleet IoT – automotive – fleet – HGV
IoT – automotive – fleet – LCV
IoT – health – RPM IoT – health – acute RPM
IoT – health – chronic RPM
IoT – retail – signage IoT – retail – signage – in-store
IoT – retail – signage – roadside
IoT – retail – signage – temporary
IoT – retail – signage – transit hubs
IoT – retail – signage – public venues

The net result is that there are now 152 fewer IoT metrics in the dataset (76 new metrics replace 228 retired ones).

The business forecasts have been fully updated for North America and the Middle East and North Africa based on data to 1Q 2023 and 4Q 2022, respectively.

The pay-TV forecasts have been fully updated for all of Western Europe and for Turkey using the new taxonomy introduced in December 2023, which is explained in the Full metrics list.

The regional and worldwide core forecasts have been refreshed to reflect all these changes. 

Update 8 February 2024

TELCO ACTUALS

The core historical dataset has been updated with data to 3Q 2023 for all countries in emerging Asia–Pacific, Latin America and Africa, thus completing the 3Q 2023 dataset.

TELCO FORECASTS

The core forecasts for Central and Eastern Europe have been fully updated based on data to 2Q 2023, along with the business forecasts and person-to-person (P2P) communications services forecasts for that region. The business forecasts were also fully updated for emerging Asia–Pacific based on data to 2Q 2023.

The worldwide core forecasts have been refreshed to reflect all these changes.

(In December 2023, Analysys Mason made changes to the pay-TV forecasts taxonomy, the details of which are set out in the Full metrics list, in which we have included a before-and-after view of the metrics available.)

Update 25 January 2024

Historical core data to 3Q 2023 was added to ‘Telco actuals’ for five regions. Telco core forecasts were updated for emerging Asia–Pacific and the person-to-person (P2P) forecasts were updated for all regions. 

TELCO ACTUALS

The core historical dataset has been updated with data to 3Q 2023 for all countries in Europe, North America and developed Asia–Pacific. Selected countries from Middle East and North Africa have also been updated to 3Q 2023. Fixed–mobile convergence data has been updated to 3Q 2023 for Europe.

TELCO FORECASTS

The core forecasts for emerging Asia–Pacific have been fully updated based on data to 2Q 2023.

This update also includes a full revision of the P2P communications services forecasts.

The worldwide core forecasts have been refreshed to reflect all these changes.

(We recently made changes to the pay-TV forecasts taxonomy, the details of which are set out in the Full metrics list, in which we have included a ‘before-and-after’ view of the metrics available.)

Update 21 December 2023

Financial KPI data for 3Q 2023 was added to ‘Telco actuals’. Telco core, business and pay-TV forecasts were updated for Western Europe, and Telco business forecasts for developed Asia–Pacific.  

Croatia adopted the Euro on 1 January 2023, so we are now showing local currency results for Croatia in EUR.

TELCO ACTUALS

The Financial KPI dataset has been fully updated with data to 3Q 2023.

We have revised our nomenclature for pay-TV metrics (see further details below).

TELCO FORECASTS

The core and business forecasts for Western Europe have been fully updated based on data to 2Q 2023. The pay-TV forecasts for Western Europe have been fully revised for France and Italy only (as well as the regional total). In addition, we have made the following changes to the pay-TV forecasts.

  • We have consolidated the metric taxonomy, retiring a number of metrics that were only present for Europe, such as pay-TV households as a measure of users.
  • We have revised the nomenclature to clarify the use of revenue-generating units (RGUs) as a measure of connections (as distinct from users).
  • We have introduced a new naming structure of many metrics, most notably replacing ‘OTT’ with ‘streaming video’. The new taxonomy is set out in the Full metrics list, in which we have included a 'before-and-after' view of the metrics available.
  • For France and Italy, we have introduced several new metrics, including:
    • streaming video RGUs (as opposed to users)
    • third-party streaming video spend – direct to customer
    • third-party streaming video spend – via operator sales channels
    • total streaming video – advertising tier
    • total streaming video – full-price tier.
  • The Western European regional totals for connections will include a mixture of streaming video users and RGUs until all countries have been re-modelled with the new taxonomy.

The business forecasts for developed Asia–Pacific (DVAP) have also been fully updated based on data to 1Q 2023, and these results have been incorporated into core forecast for developed Asia–Pacific. The global core forecasts have been refreshed to reflect all these changes.

We have discontinued the business/residential splits for pay-TV metrics, which were previously available for Europe only. We are also retiring the desktop management metrics for new forecasts (so these results are no longer available for Western Europe and developed Asia–Pacific).

Update 30 October 2023

Financial KPI data for 3Q 2023 was added to ‘Telco actuals’. Telco core, business and pay-TV forecasts were updated for Western Europe, and Telco business forecasts for developed Asia–Pacific.

Croatia adopted the Euro on 1 January 2023, so we are now showing local currency results for Croatia in EUR.

TELCO ACTUALS

This update includes new core historical data to 2Q 2023 for the Middle East and Africa and Latin America.

We recently enhanced our European core data coverage by introducing new metrics which clearly distinguish between retail and network subscribers for each mobile operator. We now have two metrics for both total connections and market share for European countries, as follows:

Metric name (new metrics in italics) Operator allocation
Mobile|Connections|total Network basis
Mobile|Connections|total – retail basis Retail basis
Mobile|Connections – market share|total Network basis
Mobile|Connections – market share|total– retail basis Retail basis

The total market results for both measures of connections are identical. The retail and network metrics only differ in the way that subscribers are allocated to operators:

  • Network basis: when customers subscribe to a service provided by a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO, an operator without their own network infrastructure), that customer relationship is recorded as belonging to the network operator which hosts the MVNO.
  • Retail basis: customer relationships are recorded as belonging to the retail provider, be that mobile network operator (MNO) or MVNO.

We have undertaken a remodelling exercise for all Western European mobile markets (now including Greece and Portugal) in order to show the data for the larger MVNOs individually. For Central and Eastern European countries, all MVNOs are clustered into a single entity. For non-European countries, operator subscribers and market share are reported on a network basis only.

TELCO FORECASTS

This release includes the Communication Services forecast (OTT/P2P) update for Europe. It includes updated launch dates of VoWiFi, VoLTE and Operator IP services. It also uses internal Analysys Mason consumer survey data to inform OTT (third-party app) messaging, tablet data and operator IP forecasts. The VoWiFi forecast was also remodelled.

Update 20 October 2023

TELCO ACTUALS

This update includes new core historical data to 2Q 2023 for Europe, North America and Asia–Pacific. The fixed-mobile convergence dataset has also been updated to 2Q 2023. 

We have enhanced our European core data coverage by introducing new metrics which clearly distinguish between retail and network subscribers for each mobile operator. We now have two metrics for each of total connections and market share for European countries, as follows:

Metric name (new metrics in italics) Operator allocation
Mobile|Connections|total Network basis
Mobile|Connections|total – retail basis Retail basis
Mobile|Connections – market share|total Network basis
Mobile|Connections – market share|total– retail basis Retail basis

The total market results for both measures of connections are identical. The retail and network metrics only differ in the way that subscribers are allocated to operators:

  • Network basis: when customers subscribe to a service provided by a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO, an operator without their own network infrastructure), that customer relationship is recorded as belonging to the network operator which hosts the MVNO.
  • Retail basis: customer relationships are recorded as belonging to the retail provider, be that mobile network operator (MNO) or MVNO.  

We have undertaken a remodelling exercise for all Western European mobile markets (including Greece and Portugal, for the first time, in this update) in order to show the data for the larger MVNOs individually. For Central and Eastern European countries, all MVNOs are clustered into a single entity. For non-European countries, operator subscribers and market share are reported on a network basis only. 

TELCO FORECASTS

This update includes a new version of the core forecasts for North America, based on historical data to 1Q 2023. The business, person-to-person (P2P) communications services and worldwide core forecasts have been updated accordingly. 

Update 30 September 2023

The new cloud-hosted DataHub

The DataHub application has been updated and is now hosted on the cloud. This relaunch expands the scope and flexibility of the DataHub to accommodate more and larger datasets. The original ‘Forecasts’ and ‘Actuals’ sections have been supplemented by the 'SMB Technology Forecaster' portal (see below for more details), and the original tabs have been clustered under the umbrella term 'Telco’ (metrics relating to the commercial activity of telecommunications operators). The 'Telco' dataset has not been changed since the previous update on 12 September 2023. You can find out more about the new features and revised functionality within the DataHub application.

SMB TECHNOLOGY FORECASTER DATASET

The SMB Technology Forecaster is a valuable tool that helps clients to forecast, inform and validate their marketing and channel strategies with precision and confidence.

The dataset carries around 120 000 metrics and provides forecasts of business demand for over 130 ICT categories up to 2028. Demand is expressed in terms of spending, shipments and installed base. All metrics are segmented by 13 size categories and 19 industry verticals and spend is also categorised by 5 routes to market. Data is available for 65 geographies, including 57 individually modelled countries, plus regional and worldwide totals. 

Data for all geographies was updated in July 2023 and is based on historical data up to 1Q 2022.

TELCO ACTUALS AND FORECASTS 

This data has not been changed since the previous update on 12 September 2023. 

Update 12 September 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes new Financial KPI historical data to 2Q 2023 for all regions.

FORECASTS

The core forecasts for developed Asia–Pacific have been fully refreshed based on 1Q 2023 data. We have also revised the forecasts of SMS volumes in other non-European regions. The business, global core and person-to-person (P2P) communications services forecasts have been aligned to take account of these changes.

Update 13 July 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data for all non-European countries to 1Q 2023. This completes the full data set for 1Q 2023.

FORECASTS

The fixed–mobile convergence (FMC) forecast has been refreshed to account for new historical data.

Update 3 July 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data for Central and Eastern Europe to 1Q 2023.

Update 23 June 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data for Western Europe to 1Q 2023.

FORECASTS

We have completed a full update of the Middle East and North Africa core forecasts, based on historical data to 4Q 2022. The business, communications services and worldwide core forecasts have been refreshed to align with this new data.

The wireless data traffic forecasts have also been fully refreshed. We have consolidated the list of countries modelled individually, while still providing full regional and worldwide coverage. Full coverage details can be found in the ‘List of metrics’ download, available in the ‘About the DataHub’ menu in the application. The core forecasts for all regions have been amended to include new cellular data traffic figures drawn from the wireless data traffic forecasts.

Update 26 May 2023

ACTUALS

This update contains Financial KPI data for 1Q 2023 for all regions.

FORECASTS

We have made some minor revisions to the Latin America core forecast and some very small adjustments to the business forecast metrics in some regions.

EXCHANGE RATES

We have revised the exchange rate data that underpins all monetary values in the DataHub. The 2022 exchange rate figures are now based on actual numbers rather than forecasts, and all exchange rates for future years have been reforecast. We are now using 2022 as the base year for constant currencies (USD 2022 and EUR 2022). Full details of our exchange rate methodology can be found in the exchange rate download file and on-screen help text.

All forecasts have been rebased to the new currency, which will result in some metrics showing different monetary values. For most forecasts, we conduct the modelling in local currencies, so the differences will be visible only in the common currency (USD or EUR) numbers and, in particular, the regional totals (because these are necessarily shown in common currency). For the small number of forecasts that we model in common currencies (for example, IoT), the local currency values will change from 2022 onwards.

Update 11 May 2023

ACTUALS

This update completes the set of historical 4Q 2022 data, with the addition of core data for the remaining non-European countries, plus the fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) historical dataset.

FORECASTS

This update also includes some minor revisions to the fixed–mobile convergence (FMC) forecast, IoT, core and business forecasts.

Update 20 April 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data for Central and Eastern Europe to 4Q 2022, and additional countries from other regions. (Full version history is available for each country in the list of metrics download available from the ‘About the DataHub’ menu.)

FORECASTS

This update includes revisions to the fixed–mobile convergence (FMC) forecast for 18 countries and core and business forecasts for Latin America. The person-to-person (P2P) communications forecasts and worldwide totals have also been refreshed to incorporate these new elements.

Update 5 April 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes financial KPI data for all regions, and also core historical data for Western Europe to 4Q 2022.

NEW! We now include an additional 18 financial KPI metrics for Western European operators. Each of the following metrics is shown for an operator’s mobile, fixed or integrated operations, according to the way they report. Like other financial KPIs, this data is collected on an ‘as reported’ basis.

  • EBIT
  • profit
  • profit – percentage
  • depreciation and amortisation (D&A)
  • D&A – percentage of revenue
  • capex – percentage of D&A.

Full definitions can be found in the DataHub behind the (?) icons.

FORECASTS 

This update includes revisions to the business forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. Core forecasts and worldwide totals have also been refreshed to incorporate these new elements. It also includes a revision to the fixed data traffic forecasts for all 39 geographies covered.

Please note that we have removed individual country data on Sudan and Zimbabwe from the DataHub. Forecast results for these countries are included in the Sub-Saharan Africa regional totals.

Update 3 March 2023

FORECASTS

This update includes the following revisions to the forecasts data sets.

    • Core forecasts: full update for Sub-Saharan Africa; business elements updated for North America.
    • Business forecasts: full update for North America; alignment with core forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa.
    • Worldwide totals, and the Communications services forecasts have also been refreshed to incorporate these new elements.

Please note that we no longer model the Sudanese market individually within the Sub-Saharan Africa forecasts, but the results for that country are included in the regional totals.

Update 16 February 2023

ACTUALS

This version of the DataHub completes recent historical updates, providing data up to 3Q 2022 for all countries and metric sets.

FORECASTS

This update includes the following revisions to the forecasts data sets.

  • Core and business forecasts: full updates for Western Europe and emerging Asia–Pacific.
  • Worldwide totals, and the Communications services forecasts have also been refreshed to incorporate these new elements.

Update 31 January 2023

ACTUALS

This update includes new historical data up to 3Q 2022 for 32 European countries.

FORECASTS

This update includes the following revisions to the forecasts data sets.

  • Business forecasts: full updates for the Middle East and North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa. Core forecasts have been aligned with this research.

Update 21 December 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes new financial KPI data for up to 3Q 2022 for all regions.

FORECASTS

  • IoT forecasts: full update for all geographies; these changes are also reflected in the core forecasts and business forecasts.
  • Communications services A2P forecasts: full update for all 56 geographies.
  • Business forecasts: full update for Central and Eastern Europe and developed Asia–Pacific; core forecasts have been aligned with this research.
  • Core forecasts: full update for Central and Eastern Europe.

SOCIOECONOMIC DATA

We have also updated our GDP and population figures in both the ACTUALS and FORECASTS portals following the publication of new forecasts from the IMF and United Nations, respectively. Please see the metrics definitions for the full source attributions.

Update 3 November 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data for all countries in Africa, Asia–Pacific, Latin America and the Middle East, and the updated fixed–mobile convergence data set for 2Q 2022, which completes the full historical data set to 2Q 2022.

Update 5 October 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data to 2Q 2022 for Canada, the USA and all countries in Western Europe.

Update 26 September 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes the 2Q 2022 financial KPI data for all geographies, as well as the core historical data to 2Q 2022 for all Central and Eastern European countries. We have also improved and refreshed the 1Q 2022 data for approximately 18 non-European countries.

FORECASTS

The forecasts for developed Asia–Pacific have been fully updated based on data to 1Q 2022, and some minor improvements have been made to our recently published core forecasts for the Middle East and North Africa.

The business services and communications services forecasts have been refreshed to align with the new core forecasts. Global numbers have also been updated to reflect these changes.

Update 5 August 2022

ACTUALS

This update completes the set of historical data to 1Q 2022 for all geographies.

FORECASTS

Core forecasts have been fully updated for:

  • Middle East and North Africa (to 4Q 2021)
  • North America (to 1Q 2022).

The business services and communications services forecasts have been refreshed to align with the new core forecasts. Global numbers have also been updated to reflect these changes.

Update 14 July 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes historical data to 1Q 2022 for all European countries and Japan. New, recently reported financial KPI data has also been added for Brazil, Canada and Ukraine.

Update 20 June 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes financial KPI data to 1Q 2022, and core historical data for the USA and Canada for 1Q 2022. 

FORECASTS

We have made partial updates to the following core forecasts, taking into account 2021 full-year market data:

  • Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Sweden, UK and the regional total
  • Developed Asia–Pacific: Australia, New Zealand, Singapore and the regional total
  • Emerging Asia–Pacific: China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the regional total
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Zambia and the regional total.

These new results are also reflected in revised operator business services forecasts, and communications services forecasts, and all worldwide figures have been updated accordingly.

Update 12 May 2022

ACTUALS

This completes the update of the core historical data to 4Q 2021 for all regions.

FORECASTS

IoT forecasts

We have revised our IoT forecasts for Nigeria and a handful of other countries worldwide in the light of new data. These results are mirrored in the core and operator business services forecasts, and worldwide figures have been updated accordingly.

EXCHANGE RATES

We have revised the exchange rate data that underpins all monetary values in the DataHub. The 2021 exchange rate figures are now based on actual numbers rather than forecasts, and all exchange rates for future years have been reforecast. We are now using 2021 as the base year for constant currencies (USD 2021 and EUR 2021). Full details of our exchange rate methodology can be found in the exchange rate download file and on-screen help text.

All forecasts have been rebased to the new currency, which will result in some metrics showing different monetary values. For most forecasts, we conduct the modelling in local currencies, so the differences will be visible in the common currency numbers, and the regional totals in particular (because these are necessarily shown in common currency: EUR or USD). For the small number of forecasts that we model in common currencies (for example, IoT), the local currency values will change from 2021 onwards.

Update 25 April 2022

ACTUALS

This update includes core historical data to 4Q 2021 for Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe and North America, along with financial KPI data to 4Q 2021 for all regions.

We have expanded our mobile market datasets for Belgium and the Netherlands to explicitly report MVNO revenue and the number of MVNO subscribers.

FORECASTS

Fixed–mobile convergence forecasts

This update includes a new set of fixed–mobile convergence (FMC) forecasts. We have extended the footprint of these forecasts to include Canada, Norway and the USA (now a total of 19 countries).

Core forecasts

We have updated the fixed broadband elements of the core forecasts for all regions. In addition, we have added new market information to the core forecasts for Ireland, Myanmar and Nigeria. The worldwide core forecasts have been updated accordingly, along with the communications services forecasts. 

Operator business forecasts

We have completely refreshed the operator business forecasts for Latin America, and have added Chile as a fully modelled country. Furthermore, fixed broadband elements have been amended in all regions in line with the core forecasts.

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