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The Indian mobile market: forecasts and analysis 2011–2020

Operators need to understand the multiple-SIM phenomenon and inactivity drivers in emerging markets in order to evaluate their true revenue potential.

The number of subscribers in Indian mobile market has grown at a CAGR of 46% during the past three years, and subscriber teledensity reached 69% in March 2011. However, revenue growth has lagged the growth in subscriber numbers, largely because market players have focused on making services affordable for mass-market users – for example, through price competition introduced by new operators.

This market structure has resulted in a high proportion of multiple-SIM and inactive users, which camouflages the country’s actual teledensity and makes it difficult to evaluate the market’s true revenue opportunity. In addition, the lack of reliable data on device penetration rates and the size of the mobile Internet user base has limited market players’ ability to estimate the size of the opportunity in the mobile data market.

This Report provides a detailed ten-year forecast of the Indian mobile market by region (that is, telecoms ‘circle’), based on our in-depth market understanding, validated by inputs from multiple industry participants and benchmarked against our knowledge of worldwide markets. It includes forecasts of the number of voice and data service users, and of the number of data-only device users, as well as key metrics such as average revenue per user (ARPU), minutes of use (MoU) and revenue per minute (RPM) by circle.

The Report provides a ten-year forecast by circle, technology generation (2G, 3G and 4G) and device type, of the following metrics:

  • wireless SIM base
  • teledensity
  • net additions per month
  • active SIM base
  • inactive SIMs’ share of the wireless SIM base
  • unique user base
  • unique user penetration
  • active SIMs per household
  • SIM ARPU
  • non-voice services’ share of ARPU
  • voice service RPM
  • minutes of use MoU.
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Sample pages PDF, 166KB Data annex shell XLSX, 939KB