Shaping an investment-ready business plan for a satellite operator’s non-terrestrial network direct-to-device venture

“By bringing rigorous economic cost modelling to an emerging technology, we helped the client move from ambition to conviction and proceed with a proposed investment, shaping a shared NTN vision that investors, operators and policy makers could genuinely stand behind.”

– Janette Stewart, Partner, Analysys Mason

The challenge

A major satellite network operator wanted to explore a credible way to act on standardised direct‑to‑device (D2D) services 

Satellite D2D connectivity was emerging as a strategically important opportunity, but no single satellite network operator had sufficient spectrum depth, scale or risk appetite to pursue it alone.

Against this backdrop, a major satellite network operator wanted to explore how to exploit mobile satellite spectrum (MSS) holdings in a 3GPP-standardised low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellation, and was assessing how it might move forward to develop a viable, large-scale non-terrestrial network (NTN) D2D proposition for wholesale distribution. The challenge was not ambition, but viability: understanding business model structures, and how capabilities and investment could genuinely evolve to create a venture that worked commercially, technically and financially.

Critically, the operator needed a view of what such a proposition would require to succeed and where the limits, trade-offs and risks lay before committing to a commercial path.

We worked with the operator to investigate, shape and quantify a potential market opportunity and to create an outline business plan, providing a robust foundation for internal alignment, decision-making and investor engagement.

Our approach 

We tested whether a standardised NTN venture could work based on an indicative network plan – commercially, technically and at investment scale

We worked with the operator as an independent and trusted partner to investigate, shape and test the viability of a 3GPP NTN standards-based D2D business.

We started by conducting a market sizing exercise before developing an outline business plan based on an indicative technical design for a LEO constellation provided by our client. The business plan brought together demand potential, technical architecture, spectrum strategy, operational models and financial performance into a single, coherent view of the opportunity.

We assessed the impact on the business plan of alternative constellation and network configurations, explored different deployment and system structures, and translated technical and commercial choices directly into cashflow outcomes.

Throughout the engagement, we tested assumptions and sensitivities with the client, before consolidating those inputs into an outline business plan that reflected the operator’s ambition and the conditions under which that ambition could be realised.

The impact

Replacing uncertainty with a verified NTN proposition the operator could align behind

We helped to give the operator clarity and confidence at a critical decision point.

The work replaced initial, fragmented assumptions with a consistent, transparent fact base that the operator  could rely on with confidence.

The resulting business plan provided our client with a clear view of what would need to be true for a large-scale NTN D2D venture to succeed across demand, technology choices, spectrum access, costs and risk. This clarity allowed the operator to move discussions from “could this work?” to “under what conditions does this work, and what must we choose?”.

By translating a complex, multi-service concept into a decision-grade proposition, the engagement supported alignment within the operator, reduced the risk of subsequent investment decisions, and strengthened the operator’s ability to move forward and engage investors with confidence.

The operator emerged with a credible foundation for shaping the next phase of D2D connectivity, which was grounded in rigorous analysis.