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Pay TV and OTT video in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2018–2023

Martin Scott Principal Analyst, Research
Rémy Giraud Analyst, Research

"We forecast that operators and traditional pay-TV providers will gain users and retail revenue as a result of OTT, with retail revenue increasing from EUR32.6 billion to EUR36.1 billion between 2018 and 2023."

Pay TV in Western Europe: trends and forecasts 2017–2022

This forecast unites our traditional and OTT video forecasts for Western Europe into a single forecast because these services cannot be viewed in isolation. Full-price pay-TV services are being launched over unmanaged IP (for example, OTT), and from a consumer point of view, these services are the same, or better, than the services that they received over traditional accesses such as cable and satellite.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, premium OTT video users, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT; operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT video service – linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD
  • forecasts for 16 individual countries and Western Europe as a whole.

This report is complemented by Analysys Mason's Pay TV and OTT video in Central and Eastern Europe: trends and forecasts 2018–2023.

Geographical coverage and key metrics

Geographical coverage


Key performance indicators

Regions modelled:

  • Western Europe


Countries modelled individually

  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK


  • pay-TV households and connections
  • OTT video users
  • retail revenue (spend)
  • ASPU


Pay TV is split by the following access technologies:

  • cable (analogue and digital, CATV)
  • IPTV
  • pay digital terrestrial TV (DTT)
  • satellite (DTH)
  • operator OTT
  • third-party (non-operator) OTT


OTT video is split as follows:

  • linear – channels (paid-for and free)
  • linear – events
  • TVoD – (rental and ownership)
  • SVoD (paid-for and free)