Mobile ASPU in Western Europe will grow through 2030 but fail to keep pace with inflation

Mobile markets in Western Europe are structurally mature, leaving operators with limited scope for organic growth. Mobile penetration has peaked in most countries and is projected to decline in some markets (for example, in the Nordics and Portugal) between 2025 and 2030. This will remove net additions as a meaningful revenue lever. 

Against this backdrop, mergers, price aggressive challengers such as Digi and operators’ growing use of multi-brand strategies and premium add-ons are reshaping competitive dynamics. Operators are likely to focus on churn management, customer segmentation and service differentiation, given the narrow scope for revenue growth from new connections. 

Our Western Europe: telecoms market forecasts 2025–2030 suggest only modest ASPU growth from handset plans, at a pace that is unlikely to keep up with inflation in most markets. New market entrants and regulatory measures are expected to dilute the benefits of mobile consolidation in the region.