Satellite D2D versus macrocells: business case analysis for the 2030s

This report assesses the economic impact that satellite direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity will have on consumer mobile connectivity during the 2030s, through a comparison to terrestrial macrocells in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO) and technology. 

The report assesses the future economics of satellite D2D, focusing on the market leader Starlink’s upcoming Mobile V2 constellation as the benchmark for the 2030s. We consider the minimum viable price for D2D capacity offered to mobile network operators (MNOs), as well as a higher price scenario that assumes weaker satellite competition.

These D2D price levels are compared with the effective cost per GB of terrestrial traffic across three real MNO networks and various site business models. The analysis demonstrates the economic viability of satellite D2D as an alternative to terrestrial macrocells across different network profiles.

The report considers the mitigating factors surrounding this economic analysis, including the limitations of satellite D2D technology, the challenges faced by smaller constellation players, and the availability of spectrum. The report also provides recommendations for MNOs, towercos and satellite D2D players.

Questions answered in this report

• What is the trajectory of development for satellite D2D technology over the next 5 years, in terms of cost and performance?
• What will be the economic threat to terrestrial mobile technology posed by satellite D2D capabilities and price points in the 2030s?
• How do D2D-associated risks vary according to traffic distribution in a mobile network, as well as by the tower ownership model?
• In what ways is D2D technology structurally limited today, and how will these limitations evolve over time?