"Telecoms operator revenue could fall by up to 6% worldwide in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak."

This report examines the range of outcomes for operators’ telecoms service revenue in eight geographical regions worldwide. The report explores the economic impact that COVID-19 may have on 10 different components of operator service revenue using three scenarios: mild, moderate and severe.

This report answers the following questions.

• Which regions will be affected most severely by COVID-19 in terms of telecoms operator service revenue?
• Which services will be impacted most severely by the global pandemic?
• How long will it take for revenue to return to pre-COVID-19 levels (if at all)?
• Will any services benefit from the COVID-19 pandemic?

Methodology

• We built three scenarios around different GDP forecasts based on third-party data: mild, moderate and severe.

• We broke telecoms operator revenue into 10 component services, each of which will respond differently to the COVID-19 pandemic:

• residential mobile
• residential fixed
• business mobile
• business fixed
• business ICT
• video
• mobile IoT
• digital economy
• mobile wholesale
• fixed wholesale.

• We quantified the impact of each scenario on telecoms operator service revenue. These forecasts explore the impact on usage, the subscriber base, average spending and other areas.